Quick & Dirty Analysis:
1. Bill O’Laughlin. Doesn’t have the endorsement of the GOP. In fact, pissed them off by running ads as early as January.
2. Chris Collins. Not Joel Giambra. Successful suburban businessman. He presses all the buttons that the WBEN constituency love – business owner who will run government “like a business”; will have a lovey-dovey relationship with the control board; not a politician, has never held elective office before.
1. Jim Keane. Former Gorski Deputy is no spring chicken, and he’s never held a job in the dreaded private sector. Has an early endorsement from Byron Brown (which means an endorsement from Steve Casey / Grassroots / Steve Pigeon / all of the above).
2. Paul Clark. Stood by Giambra. Has raised taxes loads in West Seneca. Not a chance.
3. Lynn Marinelli. Despite her recent efforts to usher in reform in county government, she has also held public office for over 10 years and was there during the unanimous budget passages of the early Giambra years. Has baggage.
4. Mark Poloncarz. Fresh face, good ideas, smart, and people like the job he’s doing. Negatives would include the fact that he’s only been Comptroller for a little over a year, and the fact that, according to Illuzzi, he’s not running.
5. Dan Ward. He’s running, but he isn’t raising anywhere near enough money to win. He won’t be in long.
So, my prediction is that Clark and Keane bloody each other throughout 2007, but Marinelli will have trouble doing a slalom around them.
In the end, no matter who the Dem candidate is, Collins will win in a squeaker because he’s got the private sector experience, and is a fresh, non-political face. What say you?