NY-26 – Not. For. Effing. Sale.

2 Apr

This Bob McCarthy article steamed me up. There’s a laundry list of eager swots looking to convince party bigshots that they can buy their way into Reynolds’ open seat. So-and-so will pledge $3 million in personal funds; so-and-so will pledge $1 million in personal funds, etc.

So are only the ridiculously wealthy worthy?

It’s evident that I’m a supporter of Jon Powers in this race. Jon isn’t rich, and he hasn’t been able to pledge hundreds of thousands of dollars of his own money towards his own race. Instead, he’s spent uncountable time, precious shoe leather, and when he meets prospective voters, the connection he makes is worth more than a five-figure loan to one’s own campaign account.

Republican sources say his inability to so far attract big Democratic donors shows his fundraising has a long way to go. But Powers says he’s satisfied with the fact that 65 percent of his donations are $50 or less.

Powers’ “inability to so far attract big Democratic donors” is partly due to the fact that the biggest counties in the district haven’t endorsed anyone yet. The Republicans have loads of names, few of whom can be bothered to run. The Democrats, by contrast, have too many candidates talking about running.

Today, some other website leaked the results of only part of a poll showing Jon Powers to be largely unknown in the district. That’s not really surprising, is it?

If one took a poll measuring the public perception of Michael Powers (who has declined to run) or Anthony Baynes (who has declined to run) or Jordan Levy (who was out before he was ever in), or David Bellavia (heard of him? He’s a Republican running in NY-26), the results would no doubt be rather similar. Ever heard of Stephen Hawley? If you’re in Genesee County, maybe. Not very familiar here.

Naturally, Jack Davis has name recognition coming out the wazoo. He’s run for congress twice, spent a lot of money on ads galore, and almost won last time out. Jon Powers has been doing the retail politicking that gets him one-on-one with voters. He invariably connects with them, but it’s far, far too early to spend megabucks on profile-raising TV ads right now.

In his stump speech, Powers says that, in the service, some lead by rank, and others lead by example. Using it against Reynolds, he states that, for too long, the representative from New York’s 26th has led by rank. Jon pleads to lead by example.

I have a feeling there are a lot of people who are going to be pulling rank on Jon in the following weeks. Rank based on money, and rank based on longevity in public service.

43 Responses to “NY-26 – Not. For. Effing. Sale.”

  1. Stephen Nazwisko April 2, 2008 at 7:35 pm #

    In the end, he still needs to raise at least $2 million, probably $3 million.

    And if Hochul gets in the race, he could probably raise $10 million and it wouldn’t matter.

  2. Administrator April 2, 2008 at 8:17 pm #

    And why exactly is Kathy Hochul so deserving and/or fearsome a candidate?

  3. Stephen Nazwisko April 2, 2008 at 9:57 pm #

    Who says she’s deserving? I’m just saying she’s gonna win.

    She’s a great candidate for office; Powers is a good candidate for office, Kryzan and Davis are awful candidates for office.

    But if you want me to make the case for her (and I live in the district and am still deciding for myself), I’ll give it a shot.

    Kathy Hochul is the only candidate for the office who can raise the necessary amount of money to win. Powers has proven that can’t raise money fast enough. This race will take 2 million dollars to win, thre million with a primary. Hochul has a fund raising base from her time as clerk, on the Hamburg town council, and her time as a high-priced DC lawyer.

    Hochul is the only candidate for the office who has ever won an election before. In fact, she has never lost.

    Hochul won the Erie County part of the district 62-38 in 2007. She won every town in Erie County by at least 8 points despite having a well funded opponent.

    Hochul is a dedicated public servant who is in government for the right reasons. She took a massive pay cut (something like 92%) to become a Hamburg councilperson, then actually took a paycut to become County Clerk (really). If you’ve ever met her, you would know in 3 minutes how genuine and dedicated she is, kind of the same one feels upon meeting Mark Poloncarz.

    She’s actually out doing things to save the taxpayers money, she was, as deputy clerk, in charge of reorganizing the Clerks office after a 70%+ staff reduction, and did a great job, and has been very effective at reducing costs in the clerks office for years in a six-sigma like fashion.

    In fact, the clerk’s office, under her control, spends exactly $0 in tax money, and actually generates a profit that goes in to the count general fund.

    More importantly, she is probably the Democrat’s best shot at winning the seat in November. She’s a woman, and if you haven’t noticed, women do really really really well around here. Ridiculously well. Western New Yorkers trust women blindly, and most independent women will vote for her just because of her gender.

    She did 5 points better in the 26th in Erie County than Davis did the prior year, and if that holds, that’s 90% of the margin for victory right there. Add in those out of county women and she could be looking at 55-57% as her maximum potential vote, versus 52 for Powers or 50.001 for Davis. (I don’t think Kryzan can win at all because of her work for Hooker Chemical and her past donations to Reynolds and Pataki)

    So I guess that’s the case for Hochul. I’m still torn between her, because she has the best chance in November, and Powers, because I like him in general. But that’s the case.

  4. Denizen April 3, 2008 at 12:17 am #

    Whoah, could you have a district any more gerrymandered to capture the Archie Bunker vote?

  5. Haterade April 3, 2008 at 12:37 am #

    Illoser says Powers is “crazy”.

    Hello pot … this is the kettle calling ….

  6. Becky April 3, 2008 at 5:29 am #

    At this point in time, I don’t see any of them attracting big money (Hochul excepted if she declares, but she has an officeholder campaign fund already), other than their own.

    Either they have the personal funds or they don’t.

  7. BH Liddell Hart April 3, 2008 at 7:31 am #

    Hochul only has 17,000 in her campaign account, but even so, money in a state account can’t be turned into money for a federal race.

  8. starbuck April 3, 2008 at 10:05 am #

    Denizen, the gerrymandering is equal to capture the Meathead Rob Reiner vote in Lousie Slaughter’s district to the north (and to the east, and west) of the 26th. Both parties benefited a lot, as would be expected with each controlling one house of the state leg which drew those lines.

  9. STEEL April 3, 2008 at 10:25 am #

    The real problem is that so many Congressional seats in WNY are divided by constituencies in Rochester and Buffalo. This effectively weakens that congressman’s ability to advocate for their district.

    For instance Congressman A lobbies for 8M for schools in Rochester and then the next week lobbies for 15M for schools in Buffalo. The congress says to him you already got 8M for your district. You get nothing. The Rochester side says hay why only 8mill for us. The Buffalo side says sure you deliver for Rochester and we get nothing.

    The South Carolina congressman says thanks for the new military contract uncle Sam. Quick we need to recruit some new workers to fulfill this new work order.

  10. Robert Harding April 3, 2008 at 10:45 am #

    Stephen,

    I want to know why you keep saying that Hochul did better in the Erie County part of the 26th than Davis did. You’re comparing apples and oranges. She had the incumbent advantage. Local politics is a different game than a congressional run as well. You can’t really compare the two. Davis was facing an opponent who was an incumbent from Erie County.

    And sorry, she isn’t the best Democrat for this seat. She can tout her career as a staffer with LaFalce and Moynihan, but how many others can say that they worked for either of those men? Does that make them qualified? Being Erie County Clerk is a far cry from being a congresswoman.

    Plus, your perception of money in this race is flawed. Apparently your arguments died on TAP so you came to BP’s blog to try and pass off the same BS. Jack Davis proved that money has nothing to do with it. If it did, he would have been our congressman after 2004. But he lost – twice.

    Powers is raising money, going around the district, organizing (insert name of county here) for Powers groups and planning ahead to the summer, where he can go around to county fairs and make his case and really get his name out there.

    You are calling this race too early. Plus, I don’t really want to take advice from someone from Erie County on who to pick for candidates. After all, you guys did give the world Jim Keane. What a candidate he turned out to be.

  11. Stephen Nazwisko April 3, 2008 at 11:27 am #

    sigh…
    Robert, I started on this blog, I didn’t troll my way over here. My comments didn’t die on TAP, I just decided we didn’t need to continue our conversation, because we’re both on our points and not coming off of them, and you were beginning to attack me personally.

    Jack Davis was outspent 3:1 in 2004 and 2:1 in 2006. So to say Jack Davis proved money doesn’t matter is exactly the opposite of what the evidence demonstrates.

    Powers doesn’t have to outspend to win, he needs to be competitive. With $350K on Dec 31 he’s not. I’m hoping he files a large dollar figure – $750K-1000K – for March 31 and then this whole stupid back and forth we’re having becomes irrelevant.

    Highly targeted professional mailings cost about $60K to reach the swing 20% of the district, he’s gonna need to send 10-15 to cover everyone the proper number of times in a primary and a general. That’s about $800K. 1000 points of TV advertising costs $65K a week. 4 Weeks primary and 6 weeks general costs $650,000. Ad production will cost $100K. Staff will run him around $200K. Polls will cost about $50K. An ID program will cost $75K. A Field program will cost $50-100K. Office space and utilities will cost $50K. Office supplies will cost $50K. Bumper Stickers, signs, palm cards, pins, magnets, pencils, fundraising mailers and costs, websites, video cassettes to record the news, copier rental, computers, printers and other crap will cost $250K. These aren’t made up numbers, I’ve done this before.

    So that’s ~$2.3 Million, forgetting what I’ve missed. That’s why money matters. He’s not going to win by going to a county fair and meeting 600 people in 3 hours. He’s going to win by having a message and hammering it home to voters.

    What makes you think that I had anything to do with the selection of Jim Keane? I’m not that important. Anyways, no one else in the race could have beaten Collins either. Once Mark Poloncarz declined to run, it didn’t matter anymore.

    If money doesn’t matter why do you post multiple fund raising links every day on your site?

  12. Russell April 3, 2008 at 12:49 pm #

    The district is far from gerrymandered. Folks love to throw that term around but seem to have no idea what it means. Perhaps the case could be made that Slaughter’s is, but a gerrymandered district does not normally look so boxy with so many straight lines with logical divides for its boundaries.

    And state campaign money can be turned into federal campaign money. You just need letters from enough donors on your books to equal the amount in question saying that they agree to transfer their money to the federal campaign. Then that money has to count against their donation limits. $17,000 probably isn’t really worth the effort, though.

    Money is not the number one deciding factor. There are ways to make up for monetary shortcomings, but it takes a good candidate with a strong organization and a lot of passionate volunteers. Besides, once it gets past the primary part, the national parties have already promised to throw plenty of cash at this race. If you can prove you’re a viable candidate and impress the powers that be in DC, you’ll get the money. That doesn’t mean a candidate can rest easy not do any fundraising. It is a factor in deciding viability. But Powers, or Hochul, or anyone else will not have to raise the entire $2mil or $3+mil on his/her own.

  13. Russell April 3, 2008 at 12:53 pm #

    I do have to add, though, that I think it’s a bit ridiculous that Powers has been working on this for about year now and has so little to show for his efforts. I think there are some potential candidates out there that could step in tomorrow and in less than a week match what’s taken him a year to put together.

  14. Buffalopundit April 3, 2008 at 1:05 pm #

    I do have to add, though, that I think it’s a bit ridiculous that Powers has been working on this for about year now and has so little to show for his efforts. I think there are some potential candidates out there that could step in tomorrow and in less than a week match what’s taken him a year to put together.

    Unless you have all of the data from the aforementioned poll, your statement here is laughable.

  15. Russell April 3, 2008 at 1:13 pm #

    Poll? How about fundraising and organization? I don’t think it’s my statement that’s laughable.

  16. Buffalopundit April 3, 2008 at 1:37 pm #

    He’s raised about $370k to date, starting from nothing. That’s impressive for a first-timer.

    And what do you know about his organization that I don’t know?

  17. Russell April 3, 2008 at 2:03 pm #

    It’s not impressive and he’s not going to get a free pass or special treatment for being a first-timer. What would have been impressive and should have been his goal was to get so far ahead in fundraising, organization, and campaigning, that at this point in time no one would want to enter the race to challenge him, or at least they’d have to seriously consider if they could overcome the advantages he’s already built for himself. After a year in the race, he has no advantage in any one of those categories let alone all three combined. That also says a whole lot about his organization. I don’t have to know more than you or even as much as you. That alone says plenty.

  18. Buffalopundit April 3, 2008 at 2:24 pm #

    It’s not impressive

    That’s your subjective opinion, which differs from mine. Surprise.

    and he’s not going to get a free pass or special treatment for being a first-timer.

    Did I say he gets a free pass? Anyone? No? Oh. Ok.

    What would have been impressive and should have been his goal was to get so far ahead in fundraising, organization, and campaigning, that at this point in time no one would want to enter the race to challenge him, or at least they’d have to seriously consider if they could overcome the advantages he’s already built for himself.

    No one has officially announced on the Dem side except for Powers and Kryzan. Davis told the Rochester paper he was running, but he can’t get even a local endorsement to save his life. Hochul hasn’t announced anything yet. So, you’re kinda wrong. Especially given that Davis has name recognition and money right off the top, and given that Hochul also has wide name recognition and her own personal wealth. She won 70% – 30%-ish, IIRC.

    After a year in the race, he has no advantage in any one of those categories let alone all three combined.

    He has more money and more name recognition than Kryzan, his only other opponent right now. He has more money than Hochul. No one can catch Davis on money or name recognition.

    That also says a whole lot about his organization. I don’t have to know more than you or even as much as you. That alone says plenty.

    You quite obviously don’t know as much as I, nor do you seem to be able to analyze the facts in a non-disingenuous way.

  19. Russell April 3, 2008 at 3:25 pm #

    Sure, it’s subjective, but considering candidates have raised more funds for special elections or following a surprise announcement of a retirement in a much shorter period of time, it’s not impressive. Really, I doubt the folks in DC are impressed with $370k in over a year and those are the subjective opinions Powers need to worry about.

    It doesn’t matter whether others have announced or not. The fact that there is (are) candidate(s) considering at this time is all that matters. The point that they’re taking their time to consider this and don’t think they need to rush their decision in order to catch up with Powers also shows how unimpressed other candidates and probably the party leadership are.

    The problem is you cannot analyze the facts objectively, nor do you have the experience I have to properly evaluate these facts.

  20. Robert Harding April 3, 2008 at 5:56 pm #

    sigh…
    Robert, I started on this blog, I didn’t troll my way over here. My comments didn’t die on TAP, I just decided we didn’t need to continue our conversation, because we’re both on our points and not coming off of them, and you were beginning to attack me personally.

    I was attacking you personally? Interesting. I just called you wrong (which you were). Calling someone wrong isn’t attacking them personally. Calling someone wrong is calling someone wrong.

    And I never said you trolled your way over here. I’m telling you you are trying to pass off the same BS you did on TAP. That’s what I said.

    Jack Davis was outspent 3:1 in 2004 and 2:1 in 2006. So to say Jack Davis proved money doesn’t matter is exactly the opposite of what the evidence demonstrates.

    Powers doesn’t have to outspend to win, he needs to be competitive. With $350K on Dec 31 he’s not. I’m hoping he files a large dollar figure – $750K-1000K – for March 31 and then this whole stupid back and forth we’re having becomes irrelevant.

    FYI – This stupid back and forth started when you decided that Powers needs to have a million dollars in his war chest by the end of March. How can you say that when (A) There are no declared Republican candidates yet and (B) This is an open seat.

    You should have learned your lessons with Jack Davis. Davis is a millionaire. All these Republicans (Lewis, for example) coming forward who have money are in the same boat. They might have the money, BUT YOU NEED TO SEE THE DISTRICT! That’s my argument all along Stephen. You keep saying Powers doesn’t have the money, but he’s got a coalition in this district willing to work for him. That’s a lot more than any Democratic candidate will have and a lot more than any Republican candidate has.

    Television ads, mailings, etc. are in the eye of the beholder. Do they swing voters? Maybe. But pounding the pavement and people seeing the candidate face-to-face will mean more to a voter than any mailer. I had a friend tell me that if you went by yard signs alone, Jack Davis would have won 2 to 1. Davis had a ton of yard signs. But they meant nothing in the end.

    I never said you were connected with Keane. All I’m saying is why would we listen to Erie County about what candidate OUR district should have? Every county (except Erie) has spoken: They want Jon Powers to be their candidate. And you know why they want him Stephen? Because he can understand the issues affecting middle class citizens. He also cares about the issues affecting this district. He’s not pumping his own record like Hochul is and not pumping his wallet like Davis is. What he’s doing is going to people in this district and letting them decide. People like that. And that’s why six counties have endorsed Jon Powers.

  21. Robert Harding April 3, 2008 at 6:04 pm #

    It’s not impressive and he’s not going to get a free pass or special treatment for being a first-timer. What would have been impressive and should have been his goal was to get so far ahead in fundraising, organization, and campaigning, that at this point in time no one would want to enter the race to challenge him, or at least they’d have to seriously consider if they could overcome the advantages he’s already built for himself. After a year in the race, he has no advantage in any one of those categories let alone all three combined. That also says a whole lot about his organization. I don’t have to know more than you or even as much as you. That alone says plenty.

    Russell, look at NY-25. Dan Maffei, who has all of what you say Powers should have. Maffei has the organization, the money and the campaigning. But when Rep. Jim Walsh retired, all these Democrats started saying (some privately) that they wanted to run for the seat.

    Bob McCarthy of the Buffalo News mentioned this today about this race. Before Reynolds retired, three Democrats were vying for the post. Now, 18 NAMES have been mentioned for this race, including the three who have been in this all along. This happens all the time. Even with Maffei, there were candidates still looking at running in NY-25. The same goes for this race.

    Let’s face facts: We are in early April. There’s only so much you can do in early April. You’re not going to have people putting up yard signs – let’s put it that way. Powers is going around organizing in each county and he has netted many county and union endorsements already. All the counties in this district except Erie of course. He’s going to have a good fundraising quarter (I suspect) because of Reynolds’ retirement. he also has been campaigning throughout the district and has already gone door-to-door (in Clarence).

  22. Robert Harding April 3, 2008 at 6:13 pm #

    Sure, it’s subjective, but considering candidates have raised more funds for special elections or following a surprise announcement of a retirement in a much shorter period of time, it’s not impressive. Really, I doubt the folks in DC are impressed with $370k in over a year and those are the subjective opinions Powers need to worry about.

    He raised that in about six or seven months, by the way. He officially declared in June 2007 and I believe BP was there for that. So your assertion that he raised that in over a year is wrong. He raised that in about a half year, maybe a month more.

    It doesn’t matter whether others have announced or not. The fact that there is (are) candidate(s) considering at this time is all that matters. The point that they’re taking their time to consider this and don’t think they need to rush their decision in order to catch up with Powers also shows how unimpressed other candidates and probably the party leadership are.

    The party leadership? What party leadership? Erie County’s? It’ll be a cold day in Hell when I listen to Erie County about what candidate I should vote for. And let’s face it – the only reason these people are all of a sudden interested is because Reynolds retired. I’ll give Powers, Alice Kryzan and Jack Davis credit. They were all interested in this race before it was “cool” to do so. Then after Reynolds retires, Hochul pops up and says her record is unmatched and a few other Dems have been tossed around as possible candidates. They are nothing but opportunists. They aren’t running for this seat for good reasons.

    The problem is you cannot analyze the facts objectively, nor do you have the experience I have to properly evaluate these facts.

    What gives you the experience to do so? Please do share with us. I’m listening…

  23. Stephen Nazwisko April 3, 2008 at 8:22 pm #

    Robert,

    You have no idea why Kathy Hochul is running.

    Yard signs are completely worthless. That’s not opinion, that’s been scientifically tested. Bad example.

    Door to door is absolutely the best form of voter contact. Problem is that there’s 600,000 voters in the, district; 10 voters an hour, 5 hours a day, 200 days left, that’s 10,000 voters. That’s 1.5%. The other 98.5%? I hope you have TV and mailers.

    You attacked me personally when you said that I believed money should dictate candidates. That’s flat out not true.

    And yes, in 7 months (JJASOND), 55K per is not enough. He could have three times that if he had hit the phones last year, and then we wouldn’t be having this discussion, because Davis and Hochul would have been scared to run.

  24. Russell April 3, 2008 at 8:28 pm #

    Robert, you have very little choice in deciding whether or not to listen to folks from Erie County about who you should vote for. Both the primary and the general election are probably going to be decided by Erie County between candidates from Erie County.

    If the amount of money Powers raised was impressive, you and BP would not have to keep putting qualifiers and conditions on it. There’s not that much difference between raising that money in 7 months or a year just like it doesn’t matter that he’s a first-timer. It’s not a grand amount. Much more than that flies around in under a month in most Congressional campaigns. One well-connected fundraiser with one single event could raise more money than that.

    And no, this doesn’t happen all the time. Just because you can give anecdotal evidence of it does not make it true. It’s pretty well-known that a large war-chest, good organization and solid campaigning can ward off challengers. That’s why incumbents and even some challengers work hard to build these even in off years. Powers should be beyond the organizing stage. If he announced in June, he should have already had some groundwork laid at that point. Even if he didn’t, that’s still over 9 months ago. His organization should be humming along at this point.

    What gives me the experience is over 6 years working for a Congressman and serving as the Assistant Campaign Manager for three elections. Is that good enough for you?

  25. Buffalopundit April 3, 2008 at 8:37 pm #

    What’s a “grand amount?”

    What do you know about Powers’ groundwork? Specifics, please.

    Sure, it’s subjective, but considering candidates have raised more funds for special elections or following a surprise announcement of a retirement in a much shorter period of time, it’s not impressive. Really, I doubt the folks in DC are impressed with $370k in over a year and those are the subjective opinions Powers need to worry about.

    What folks in DC? District’s in New York.

    It doesn’t matter whether others have announced or not. The fact that there is (are) candidate(s) considering at this time is all that matters. The point that they’re taking their time to consider this and don’t think they need to rush their decision in order to catch up with Powers also shows how unimpressed other candidates and probably the party leadership are.

    I’ve heard the opposite. Powers is respected and has impressed all sorts of people. He’s also heard not a few times that he should “wait his turn”. That’s the kind of politics you must dig.

    The problem is you cannot analyze the facts objectively, nor do you have the experience I have to properly evaluate these facts.

    When your facts are patently false, any analysis thereof will be worthless. Garbage in, garbage out.

  26. Russell April 3, 2008 at 9:47 pm #

    Why are you engaged in such a back-and-forth with me if my facts are so patently false? If what I’m saying is just garbage, why are you taking time out of your busy schedule right now to discuss these things with me? If all I’m saying is garbage and so false, you wouldn’t need to point that out. Folks on here would know it.

    Good luck to anyone that thinks they can run a successful Congressional campaign without any support from the folks in DC. It doesn’t matter where the District is, you’re going to need their support, especially someone who is not bringing in much of his own money, expertise or organization.

    Again, I do not know much about Powers’ actual groundwork. I do not have to give you details and I do not need the details. The fact that supporters on here are talking about him getting organized now, the fact that he does not have much of anything sown up after being in it for nearly a year, the fact that, other than on this site and in political circles, people do not know anything about him says all that anyone needs to know about his groundwork and his organization.

    Did these people that mentioned how impressed they are by Powers pat him on the head as they were saying it? The actions of the party leadership, the party supporters and other candidates say something a little different. If he impressed them and garnered so much respect, he’d have a lot more people behind him, especially folks with some clout, and he’d have a much larger war chest.

    A grand amount is an amount that will scare off most challengers, other than those with their own funds. In a Congressional contest it’s usually thought of as approaching $1-million, but with a strong organization and early campaigning it can possibly be reduced to $500,000, but that’s pushing it.

  27. mike hudson April 3, 2008 at 10:14 pm #

    it’s kathy hochul, by a mile. all bets taken. call the office.

  28. Robert Harding April 3, 2008 at 10:27 pm #

    You have no idea why Kathy Hochul is running.

    Stephen, Hochul herself was quoted in the Buffalo News as saying: “We don’t choose the timing of these opportunities,” said Kathy C. Hochul, the Erie County clerk. “Therefore I am compelled to look at it now.” – Buffalo News – March 23 (http://www.buffalonews.com/cityregion/story/305769.html)

    So I have a GOOD idea of why Hochul is running. Reynolds retired, making the seat more appealing to a lot of people and now she wants to run. I’m sure she has her noble reasons for running (if she chooses to do so) but the fact remains that she was first tossed around AFTER Reynolds retired. If that’s not a political opportunist, I don’t know what is.

    Yard signs are completely worthless. That’s not opinion, that’s been scientifically tested. Bad example.

    Not it’s not a bad example. I agree that yard signs are worthless. But Jack Davis put A LOT of them out. You can shell out the money for all sorts of ads but you have to ask yourself, “What effect will this have?”

    Door to door is absolutely the best form of voter contact. Problem is that there’s 600,000 voters in the, district; 10 voters an hour, 5 hours a day, 200 days left, that’s 10,000 voters. That’s 1.5%. The other 98.5%? I hope you have TV and mailers.

    That’s why you have an organization Stephen. If you have a campaign going around to counties and forming coalitions, those people can make phone calls, go door to door, do literature drops, etc. Obviously, I don’t see Powers going to every house. But volunteers can.

    You attacked me personally when you said that I believed money should dictate candidates. That’s flat out not true.

    That’s a personal attack to you? Maybe you should go blog for Free New York (like I did) and get called every word in the book like I was because I was a liberal. You were making contradictory statements. You appeared to say that you thought Powers was the best candidate and money shouldn’t determine the best candidate yet you kept pushing the money issue like it was THE issue. I simply called you on your apparent hypocrisy.

    And yes, in 7 months (JJASOND), 55K per is not enough. He could have three times that if he had hit the phones last year, and then we wouldn’t be having this discussion, because Davis and Hochul would have been scared to run.

    First, the facts. Powers will never scare Davis out of the race. Davis has the ego to run under any circumstances. Who knows? Maybe he’s reconsidering his run now with all this hype. But I doubt it. You weren’t going to keep Davis out of this race no matter what. He thinks his money is all that matters.

  29. Robert Harding April 3, 2008 at 10:33 pm #

    Robert, you have very little choice in deciding whether or not to listen to folks from Erie County about who you should vote for. Both the primary and the general election are probably going to be decided by Erie County between candidates from Erie County.

    Actually, I do have a choice. If Erie County doesn’t care what I think (and fellow rural voters like me) then I don’t care what they think.

    And there’s a difference between being a candidate from Erie County and being a candidate from Erie County who reaches out to others. We have seen this with the judicial races and we have seen this with the congressional race in the past. We’re not going to be pushed over this time.

    If the amount of money Powers raised was impressive, you and BP would not have to keep putting qualifiers and conditions on it. There’s not that much difference between raising that money in 7 months or a year just like it doesn’t matter that he’s a first-timer. It’s not a grand amount. Much more than that flies around in under a month in most Congressional campaigns. One well-connected fundraiser with one single event could raise more money than that.

    What qualifiers and conditions? You’re the one that didn’t even know how many months was included in his filing. You thought it was over a year when actually it was six or seven months. And how can you say that there’s not a difference between raising that money in seven months or a year? In a year he has raised more. That’s just common sense.

    And no, this doesn’t happen all the time. Just because you can give anecdotal evidence of it does not make it true. It’s pretty well-known that a large war-chest, good organization and solid campaigning can ward off challengers. That’s why incumbents and even some challengers work hard to build these even in off years. Powers should be beyond the organizing stage. If he announced in June, he should have already had some groundwork laid at that point. Even if he didn’t, that’s still over 9 months ago. His organization should be humming along at this point.

    I won’t bother repeat what I said. I stand by my previous remarks. He does have an organization. I have some insight into that organization. But hey, what do I know?

    What gives me the experience is over 6 years working for a Congressman and serving as the Assistant Campaign Manager for three elections. Is that good enough for you?

    Actually, my question was sarcasm. I could care less who you are. All I know is that you’re another one of these alleged Democrats who think money rules all. I thought we were the party of the people and not the party of the highest bidder?

    I guess this is Erie County’s world. We are just living in it.

  30. Buffalopundit April 3, 2008 at 10:38 pm #

    Why are you engaged in such a back-and-forth with me if my facts are so patently false? If what I’m saying is just garbage, why are you taking time out of your busy schedule right now to discuss these things with me? If all I’m saying is garbage and so false, you wouldn’t need to point that out. Folks on here would know it.

    Yes, but your petulant arrogance amuses me.

  31. heavyweight April 3, 2008 at 11:32 pm #

    Russell, if you disagree with BP and Robert so much and since your obviously such an important person, why do you even bother visiting this website? Since all of us supporting Jon are clueless, right?

  32. Stephen Nazwisko April 3, 2008 at 11:55 pm #

    Robert,

    We disagree on field versus money. We obviously both believe they are both important, but my priority for Powers right now would be fundraising, while yours, if I’m reading you right, would be building a field operation and a political backing. It’s a matter of priorities.

    I understand that strong field programs and grassroots support can overcome a financial deficit. That’s how Betty Jean Grant, an occasional commenter here, first won her council seat a number of years back.

    But money can buy a field program, sway endorsements, purchase television ads, and send mailings.

    To clarify one final time, my stance is that money should not dictate who wins, but that in the real world it does anyways.

    You have my email address, if we’re going to continue this discussion, i’d rather do it there.

  33. Russell April 4, 2008 at 8:14 am #

    Heavyweight, I never said I was an important person, but thanks for thinking that. I’m here because it’s entertaining and helps break-up my day. Besides, I think BP would get bored if I wasn’t around.

    Robert, the term is, “I couldn’t care less.” If you “could care less” it means you care a whole lot and could stand to care a little less than you actually do, unless that’s what you actually meant.

    No, it’s not an Erie County world, it’s just an Erie County-centric district.

    And no, there’s not much difference between whether he started raising that money in April or in June. Besides, if he was a well-organized candidate that knew what he was doing, he would have started raising money before he announced. His official announcement should not mark the beginning of his efforts, especially regarding fundraising.

    Look, you guys can tell me all you want about how much better you know the inner workings of his campaign, what a well-oiled machine it is and how great everything is running along. The simple truth is he has been in the race longer than anyone, but he has very little to show for it. He has not built any advantage, he has not distance himself from any pack, even those that are just joining the pack, he has not done much to get his name out there. If any of you do have his ear, I hope you’re not blowing the same smoke up his arse that you’re blowing here. It’s not going to help him.

    Where did you get the impression I’m a Democrat? You’re thought is a nice, quaint sentiment, though. Go ahead and keep trying to convince yourself of that. I’m sure it’s just a coincidence that the two candidates left in the Dem primary were also the two most successful fundraisers. It’s not like anyone in the field had better resumes or could serve the people better–Richardson and Biden come to mind

  34. Russell April 4, 2008 at 9:24 am #

    Another thing I found quaint was BP’s little jab that the District’s in NY. Apparently, Powers has some idea who he needs to impress in DC and even beyond that. Looking at his January FEC filing (the most recent one currently on file), he spent around $60,000 for that period and about half of it was money outside the district. The bulk of it was to folks in NYC and DC, but also included a possible fundraiser in Chicago, judging by some of the expenses with that address, including flowers and catering. Looks like there was also a fundraiser in DC and he’s hired consultant both in DC and NYC.

    You were so right, BP. I have no idea of the inter-workings of Powers’ campaign and you obviuosly do. I mentioned folks he had to impress in DC and he’s already been working on that. You thought that notion was foolish. Shows how much you really do know.

  35. Buffalopundit April 4, 2008 at 9:55 am #

    Russell, your petulant arrogance always amuses. Thanks!

  36. Rob April 4, 2008 at 10:24 am #

    You know what’s “quaint”, Russell? The fact that you pedantically corrected Robert Harding’s “could care less” in the same post in which you said “You’re thought is a nice, quaint sentiment” and one post before you referred to the “the inter-workings of Powers’ campaign”. I guess your wide-ranging experience didn’t take you anywhere near here.

  37. Russell April 4, 2008 at 11:35 am #

    Spelling may not be my strength, but you folks must appreciate having something you can go after me on. And syntax and grammar are different than spelling and typos.

    I find it sad, though, that someone with experience and knowledge based on that experience is dismissed as arrogant. I know I have something to offer because I’ve been there. That’s not arrogance. It’s what makes the world go ’round.

  38. Buffalopundit April 4, 2008 at 1:27 pm #

    Spelling may not be my strength, but you folks must appreciate having something you can go after me on. And syntax and grammar are different than spelling and typos.

    It’s an arrogance thing. The last thing a grammar nazi should do is screw up spelling or grammar in the same post. “You’re” is not a typo of “your”. Unless you slipped and hit this key: ‘ and this key: e. Typing “you’re” instead of “your” is a grammar issue. Not a spelling/typo issue. Nice, try though.

    I find it sad, though, that someone with experience and knowledge based on that experience is dismissed as arrogant. I know I have something to offer because I’ve been there. That’s not arrogance. It’s what makes the world go ’round.

    Your sadness, and other various and sundry emotions are likely not foremost on people’s minds.

    It’s not your supposed knowledge or alleged experience that’s the issue. It’s your attitude, tone, and presentation that are arrogant.

    You could most certainly offer your apparently deep and wide knowledge to us all, who are quite evidently too ignorant and/or dim to comprehend it, yet you always have a knack for doing it in a condescending, arrogant, and petulant way.

    Note, for instance, that I pointed out the location of NY-26 as being in New York. I asked a question – what folks in DC? Instead of answering that question, you launched a diatribe about the quaint ignorance of my comment about people in DC.

    But I never made one.

    Had you bothered to read it, I never suggested DC people weren’t important, per se. I merely asked a question as to the identity of the “folks” in DC who are unimpressed with Powers’ fundraising to date. However, you were too consumed with petulance and blind arrogance to answer.

    Which, as described, supra, is remarkably amusing.

  39. Russell April 4, 2008 at 2:18 pm #

    BP, you’re question “What folks in DC?” followed by “District’s in New York.” sure seemed to imply that DC people didn’t matter, not that you were asking for a list of people in DC. If I misunderstood your comment, I apologize, but it seemed your intention was clear.

    And I don’t think I’m the one with the petulance behavior around here. Stephen and I posted very similar points and the first time I posted I think my comments were much less contemptuous. However, you took no exception to what he said, but you did deem it necessary to come after me. Not only that, but you turned this personal as you often do. I’m sure if you look back, you’ll see that you often follow this pattern, going after me even though my comments are similar to others already posted and initiating the personal attacks in our back-and-forth.

  40. Russell April 4, 2008 at 2:18 pm #

    But I am glad I can entertain you.

  41. Jackson Smiles April 4, 2008 at 4:18 pm #

    Jack Davis has three million from one supporter… kryzan has 150K (97 from herself, the rest from a handful of lawyer friends)

    Jon Powers has (as of end of the year filing) 370,000 from somewhere over 8,000 supporters…

    who has more votes?

  42. Jackson Smiles April 4, 2008 at 4:21 pm #

    russell… with all do respect maybe he goes after you because your a douche bag… keep in mind i said with all due respect.

    just kidding, your right politics get too full of personal attacks. it shouldn’t be that way from either end.

    it’s the only point i agree with you on, and i’ll assume you’re not a douche bag, that was just to make a point.

  43. Jackson Smiles April 4, 2008 at 7:17 pm #

    also… if he’s not that important of a candidate then why are you spending all your time researching him?

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