Dede Scozzafava Suspends Campaign, Endorses No One

31 Oct

As noted above, the endorsed Republican candidate has been effectively purged from the Republican Party, and some sort of conservative purity is, therefore, effectively preserved.  Or something.  Scozzafava has released all her supporters, and the party chairs who backed her, to do whatever they want.

Scozzafava could have – but didn’t – aggressively combat Hoffman’s onslaught. As I did before, I attribute this to the failure of Albany politics.  She has been in the Assembly since 1999 – that’s ten years in office with the benefit of what Albany incumbency means.  Once confronted with a motivated, well-funded opponent, she was all done.

The Republican Party has moved out of the big tent and they’re all huddled in a much smaller shelter.  In the South.

Sullivan’s take is hereAmbinder here. LGF reacts here.

But frankly I don’t care if the Republican Party is busy enforcing ideological purity and expelling moderates from its ranks.  What I’m interested in is how this all shakes out.  The last two credible polls were essentially identical, showing Hoffman and Owens apart by one point, with Scozzafava way behind.  But as Nate Silver notes, NY-23 may have a 50,000 Republican enrollment advantage, but it went for Obama last year.  Scozzafava’s supporters like Obama, not so much Owens or Hoffman.

The reality is that a lot of Scozzafava’s ex-supporters, many of whom don’t like either Hoffman or Owens, simply won’t vote. And some of them will still wind up casting their ballots for Scozzafava undaunted, as she’ll still appear on the ballot and may have made herself something of a sympathetic figure. Certainly, it would seem to help Hoffman if Scozzafava decided to endorse him — but only 15 percent of Scozzafava’s voters had a favorable view of Hoffman, so they aren’t going to come over easily, if at all.

Also note that Owens has the WFP line.  The IP had endorsed Scozzafava, but with her withdrawal, IP state chairman MacKay has specifically endorsed Owens.

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24 Responses to “Dede Scozzafava Suspends Campaign, Endorses No One”

  1. Ward October 31, 2009 at 2:35 pm #

    It’s remarkable how fast this Trojan Horse candidacy went belly-up as soon as the spotlight was on it. She was dropping multiple percentage points per day.

    My sympathies to Kos, Sullivan, BP, and all the rest of her rooters–it must have been quite off-putting to be “endorsing” a “Republican”. You can return to beatifying Olympia Snowe and rescuing Arlen Spector now.

  2. Chris October 31, 2009 at 4:45 pm #

    I hope grassroots candidacies occur across the nation in 2010. The RNC needs to be sent a message: Give us a GOP candidate that at least resembles a conservative (and supports the Republican platform), or we’ll run one ourselves.

    That would be what’s best for the electorate. Let them have a *real* choice, not one between liberal and liberal-lite (RINO). Then let them decide.

  3. ike October 31, 2009 at 4:47 pm #

    you’re being intentionally obtuse here alan.

    This has very little to do with abortion, or christian bullshit. THe “purge” is one of big government assholes, and the republican districts that voted democrat should be seen as a repudiation by republican voters of those elected officials who “let washington change them” The reason that a district with 50k+ republican enrollment advantage went for Obama is because people there (and similar people across the country), were sick to death of republicans talking one way, and then acting another.

    Republicans can be successful if they would do what they claim, controling spending, preserving individual liberties, etc, etc. Republican voters want republican candidates. Not ones endorsed by labor unions.

  4. ike October 31, 2009 at 4:53 pm #

    Also,

    It’s funny that you say they’ve “moved out of the big tent and they’re all huddled in a much smaller shelter. In the South.” in response to a move that greatly increases the chances of a republican to be elected in one of the most northern districts in the nation.

  5. The Humanist October 31, 2009 at 5:14 pm #

    Actually, ike, this move guarantees that a Republican will not occupy a seat that’s been held by Republicans for over 150 years.

  6. HapKlein October 31, 2009 at 6:08 pm #

    Ruling a kingdom is like cooking a small fish. It must be done carefully. I bet by the time this is over the Republican Party will be more careful of aligning or even succumbing to its right wing conservatives.

    Since the mid-1990’s most of us former Republicans have shifted to other political alliances and parties just in response to the GOP’s drift into religion, demonstration of an real ability to reduce government and support of big business no matter how criminal.

    I fervently hope that the Democrats win this district. The famous south strategy of the GOP has been rather undone by the reality of the growing power and growth of non-white populations and pretty soon the strategy will be Texas, the lonely Republican and then the other 49 and after that Alaska whatever they are.

  7. ike October 31, 2009 at 7:14 pm #

    Humanist…Hoffman isn’t going to be a Conservative party member once he gets to congress…he’ll be a republican

  8. Ward October 31, 2009 at 10:19 pm #

    Can’t wait to hear Pundit’s analysis on the upcoming slaughter of Obama’s heavily boosted candidate for Governor in Virginia, Creigh Deeds.
    Come to think of it, I look forward to his commentary on “Corzine campaign aide arrested for narcotics possession”. And, “Newsom quits governor race” in CA.
    Yuh, maybe.

    • Christopher Smith November 1, 2009 at 12:01 am #

      @Ward, you could probably read Frank Rich’s analysis in the NY Times.

      In the latest Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll, only 17 percent of Americans identify themselves as Republicans (as opposed to 30 percent for the Democrats, and 44 for independents).

      No wonder even the very conservative Republican contenders in the two big gubernatorial contests this week have frantically tried to disguise their own convictions. The candidate in Virginia, Bob McDonnell, is a graduate of Pat Robertson’s university whose career has been devoted to curbing abortion rights, gay civil rights and even birth control. But in this campaign he ditched those issues, disinvited Palin for a campaign appearance, praised Obama’s Nobel Prize, and ran a closing campaign ad trumpeting “Hope.” Chris Christie, McDonnell’s counterpart in New Jersey, posted a campaign video celebrating “Change” in which Obama’s face and most stirring campaign sound bites so dominate you’d think the president had endorsed the Republican over his Democratic opponent, Jon Corzine.

      Only in the alternative universe of the far right is Obama a pariah and Palin the great white hope.

      The Deeds/McDonnell race is interesting because Deeds emerged as the last man standing after McAuliffe and Moran got done smacking each other around in the primary. He wasn’t a real strong candidate to begin with, just the least bad. He has run a pretty horrific campaign while McDonnell has stayed above the fray and generally stayed positive, portraying himself as a steady hand in a time of need. Is it a referendum on Obama? Maybe, maybe not. Warner and Kaine were very strong in NoVA, which enabled them to win the seat, but Deeds polls lower in that area than they did. Sometimes, it’s just a weak candidate with a weak ground operation and not some bigger issue.

      The Corzine race is also a tough one to apply an Obamafilter. Corzine has built up a lot of negatives over time and has his own truckload of baggage. The fact that Obama wants to dump any political capital in this race to help Corzine eke out a 1 or 2 point win is bizarre. Obama is probably focused more on building his ground operation in NJ than helping Corzine.

  9. mike hudson October 31, 2009 at 11:04 pm #

    the reason the republicans are out of power at this tiny moment in the history of mankind can be summed up in two words: george w. bush. it has nothing to do with religion or abortion or anything else. i think my fellow dems would do well to concentrate on not losing the congress next year, a very real possibility, rather than dancing little victory dances over a very recent and dare i say temporary shift in american politics.

  10. Christopher Smith October 31, 2009 at 11:09 pm #

    As a liberal, I’m excited that the right wingnuts are staging a coup of the GOP. I hope to see dixiepublican, creationist, religious windbags mindlessly misquoting Adam Smith and preaching the gospel of Ayn Rand in every race in 2010 to the 20% of Americans who self-identify as Republican. The Party of Beck is being born before our very eyes. It will ehance the budding national candidacies of Huckabee, Palin, Jindal, Pawlenty…it will bring the guys who want to leg hump Jim Ostrowski out of their tinfoil encased rooms to challenge moderate Republicans all over the country. It’s shaping up like 1964 for the Republicans all over again. For this, I am grateful.

  11. Mike In WNY November 1, 2009 at 12:13 am #

    Hudson pretty much nailed it, Obama is nothing but the rebound date following a bad relationship.

  12. mike hudson November 1, 2009 at 3:09 am #

    and as far as scozzafava is concerned, polling over the past several weeks showed her falling behind both hoffman and owens, who, it is said, are in a dead heat. as far as the republicans are concerned, hoffman is the best bet to keep the seat out of republican hands.

    and chris, describing george pataki and ed cox as “dixiepublican, creationist, religious windbags mindlessly misquoting Adam Smith and preaching the gospel of Ayn Rand” is exactly the kind of horseshit you accuse the republicans of spreading around. the demonization of political candidates ranging from hillary clinton to tim howard that’s become a regular feature of wnymedia’s election “coverage” is loathsome, and generally has the effect of reducing dialogue to the level displayed by third graders on lunch break.

    polling on the scozzafava race can be found here:
    http://www.observer.com/2009/politics/ny-23-poll-owens-and-hoffman-dead-heat-scozzafava-dead-0

  13. mike hudson November 1, 2009 at 3:10 am #

    keep the seat out of democratic hands, of course.

  14. Chris Smith November 1, 2009 at 9:02 am #

    At what point did I refer to Pataki and Cox as such? The movement underneath Hoffman’s campaign is what I’m referring to, you ignorant ass. Being purposefully obtuse in order to set up an insult does not make you more interesting or witty, Mike.

  15. Ward November 1, 2009 at 9:38 am #

    Chris — thanks for the analysis. I’m sure Pundit appreciates it too, as it saves him the torture of coming up with a mobius strip of logic that meets itself coming back.
    Another way of looking at the Scozzy fiasco is that Republicans have learned that the answer does not lie in nominating Obama-lite candidates.

  16. ike November 1, 2009 at 10:01 am #

    Chris Smith, Ayn Rand was a huge atheist, so it doesn’t make much sense to lump these people in as both christian wackos and reading from the gospel of Ayn Rand…atheism is kind of a core tenant of her “philosophy” too, but I guess it’s true that one need not be knowledgeable about a subject to argue about it

  17. mike hudson November 1, 2009 at 10:29 am #

    chris, both pataki and cox are supporting hoffman.

    your post clearly indicates your belief that hoffman supporters are the “dixiepublican, creationist, religious windbags mindlessly misquoting Adam Smith and preaching the gospel of Ayn Rand” you mentioned.

    you are a fucking moron, so lacking in the balls department that you refuse to take responsibility for statements appearing on the same page you’re trying to disassociate yourself from them on.

    what, did scozzafava hire you guys to do her “web hosting” or somesuch?

    grow a pair buddy. and while you’re at it just grow the fuck up.

  18. Mike In WNY November 1, 2009 at 11:04 am #

    The NY Times has no credibility. They keep people like Rich and Krugman around to do Obama’s bidding in hopes of being stimulated by the Messiah.

  19. Chris Smith November 1, 2009 at 1:40 pm #

    “your post clearly indicates your belief that hoffman supporters are the “dixiepublican, creationist, religious windbags mindlessly misquoting Adam Smith and preaching the gospel of Ayn Rand”

    – I am talking about the people who flew in from all over the country to “work” for Hoffman. The Club For Growth, Bill Kristol loving, right wing religious whacko “movement conservatives” who combine weird religious sensibility with libertarian economic principles and interventionist foreign policy. I never said a fucking thing about hangers on like Cox and Pataki who are hoping to get let into the club.

    “Chris Smith, Ayn Rand was a huge atheist, so it doesn’t make much sense to lump these people in as both christian wackos and reading from the gospel of Ayn Rand…”

    I know she was an atheist, I’ve read the books and found them to be tripe. I also know that most people who go about quoting Rand have not read anything other than the quotes pulled out and used often by Catholic Libertarians like Jim Ostrowski or Mormon libertarians like Glenn Beck.

  20. mike hudson November 1, 2009 at 1:58 pm #

    oh, i get it. you were talking about the OTHER people who supported hoffman. how silly of me not to have READ YOUR FUCKING MIND, chris.

  21. mike hudson November 1, 2009 at 2:03 pm #

    btw, genius, two new scholarly biographies of ayn rand have been published in recent months, one of which is the subject of the lengthy cover essay in this morning’s new york times book review. i seriously doubt that the tripe you write will ever rise to the level of the tripe she wrote.

  22. Starbuck November 1, 2009 at 5:44 pm #

    “20% of Americans who self-identify as Republican”

    A lot of self-ID-ing conservatives aren’t Republican. Among independents, Gallup a few days ago found conservatives outnumber liberals by 2:1. 35% of independents are c’s, 18% libs.

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/123854/conservatives-maintain-edge-top-ideological-group.aspx

    …Conservatism is most prevalent among Republicans. However, the overall increase in this ideological stance since 2008 comes largely from political independents, among whom 35% say they are conservatives thus far in 2009 — compared with 29% last year.

    Independents have also become more conservative on a number of specific policy issues, including government and union power, the role of government relative to promoting values, gun laws, immigration, global warming, and abortion. …According to Gallup Managing Editor Jeff Jones, “the Democratic-Republican gap is narrowing because more independents now say they lean to the Republican Party.” That trend aligns with the recent changes in how independents perceive their own ideology and where they stand on some key issues.

    “Obama is probably focused more on building his ground operation in NJ than helping Corzine.”

    Huh? Why should Obama even need to focus on his ground operation in very deep blue NJ?

  23. mike hudson November 1, 2009 at 8:34 pm #

    independent conservatives are what led to hoffman’s ascension, of course. i wasn’t gonna mention it, figured i’d let chris crow for a day about the moronic repub/dem paradigm that exists largely in the minds of people in backward places like buffalo.

    see ya on tuesday, chris!

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