Hochul Takes Lead in Siena Poll

21 May

Siena Research’s most recent poll in the 26th congressional district, released today, shows Democrat Kathy Hochul taking a 4- point lead over Republican Jane Corwin. Jack Davis’ support has collapsed by half, to 12%. The big story has to do with the candidates’ favorability numbers. Crosstabs here.

15 Responses to “Hochul Takes Lead in Siena Poll”

  1. Rob May 21, 2011 at 10:28 am #

    Jack Davis favorable/unfavorable 28% / 64%. Ouch.

  2. Jackson Smiles May 21, 2011 at 10:41 am #

    Where’s Ward????

  3. Rob May 21, 2011 at 10:43 am #

    Jack Davis is now less popular in that (red) district than Nancy Pelosi (see April 29 cross-tabs for Pelosi).

  4. Chris Charvella May 21, 2011 at 10:57 am #

    Corwin is trailing by a point in the reddest portion of the district. Bad news, when you couple it with her unfavorables out here. If Hochul wins Genesee County, our Dems are gonna be running through the streets naked like we just won the Superbowl.

  5. Chris Smith May 21, 2011 at 11:02 am #

    Take Davis out or destroy his credibility and Corwin wins easy, right Nick Langworthy?

  6. Mr. F.N. Magoo May 21, 2011 at 11:16 am #

    @Chris: First, the Repubs running naked ahead of the Rapture and now you’re predicting Dems doing the same in Genesee County. With the median age here in Hooterville north of dirt’s, I’m gonna poke my mind’s eye out as a precaution.

  7. Buffalo Media Insider May 21, 2011 at 11:26 am #

    Jane Corwin truly has run a disaster of a campaign… and now it’s coming back to bite her.

    But everyone knows if she loses, the GOP, at least locally, will find an excuse.

    http://buffalomediainsider.wordpress.com/

  8. Rob May 21, 2011 at 11:28 am #

    Corwin’s favorable/unfavorable differential went from +13 to – 6 in 3 weeks. Yeah great job, Nick.

  9. mistermix May 21, 2011 at 11:42 am #

    @Magoo – Read the Batavian and Dave Weigel’s stuff in Slate.  Hochul and her supporters have been visiting nursing homes to drive home the Medicare message.  It’s clearly working.  People who are on Medicare want Medicare for their children and grandchildren, not $14,000 vouchers.  The policy difference is simple and real, and Hochul is making the most of it.

  10. Mr. F.N. Magoo May 21, 2011 at 11:55 am #

    My pick for the most worrisome column for Corwin in the Siena crosstabs is “Ind/Other”. Yes? No? Other picks?

  11. Pericles May 21, 2011 at 2:54 pm #

    If the GOP pulls this off it is because they spent lots money and outside leadership, i.e. Reynolds NRCC et al., and in spite of Grant and Langworthy. That it even got to the point where they might lose is an embarrassment. The only person involved in running this race who might benefit from this is Chris Collins. Love him or hate him, that man is not stupid. He has had a front row seat to watch Grant and Langworthy make mistake after mistake- strategical, tactical, messaging, and presentational, all. There isn’t an area in this campaign where those two deserve a grade better than a C-. All thats left is GOTV and unless they pull a solid A+, there, I can’t see Collins keeping either of them around for his campaign, or if he does, he is likely to at least bring in someone to babysit them.

    Collins will make sure this story is not repeated on his reelection. He still may not win, but it won’t be because two arrogant 30 year olds make mistake after mistake.

  12. Andy May 22, 2011 at 8:11 am #

    Corwin’s favorables are under water — more people polled have an unfavorable opinion than a favorable one. On the other hand, Hochul’s favorables are higher than her unfavorables by double digits. That simply doesn’t happen in a high profile race like this. Hochul wins.  

  13. Thomas May 22, 2011 at 10:11 am #

    Ward now in Florida with Mallia?

  14. Black Rock Lifer May 22, 2011 at 3:15 pm #

    Corwins staff are certainly inept but she is just as responsible for this campaign. Her detached arrogance and lack of grounding in the real world was impossible to hide. She is the poster child for this new breed of rich spoiled brats that believe they are special and above scrutiny.

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. Balloon Juice » Hochul Takes the Lead in NY-26 - May 21, 2011

    […] the three-way special election in NY-26, a new Siena poll was just released showing Democrat Kathy Hochul leading Jane Corwin, 48-32 (MOE 3.9%). Erstwhile teabagger Jack Davis […]

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