The Republican Rift, the PPP Poll #NY26

23 May

Is Phil Corwin Pissed?

That’s the claim being made in this blog post that was emailed to me yesterday. While the facts are a bit sloppy (e.g., the Channel 2 debate was held at 9am, not 12pm), it wouldn’t at all surprise me if the Corwins were caught unawares by the dirty trickery of the Collins brain trust, and blew their chance to prevent the Mallia fiasco from becoming a 2 week-long story.

Corwin’s Chief of Staff Mike Mallia’s weak attempt of a video ambush of Davis on the night of May 11th occurred without Corwin having any knowledge of the plan. The scheme was hatched by Chris Collin’s COS Chris Grant and endorsed by Republican Chairman Nick Langworthy. The video was then put on YouTube and hit the late news, but Corwin had gone to bed early due to the noon debate on Ch 2 the next day. Phil Corwin saw the video clip but failed to tell his wife in the morning, fearing it would distract her. Corwin was clueless when she was approached by reporters in the Ch 2 parking lot after the debate because not one staff member had bothered to tell her what had transpired.

and

Corwin is also coming under fire for not cutting loose Malia and separating herself from such a frat house stunt. The issue there is that Malia was just following orders and would probably go public on Chris Grant with all of the sordid details if he were to be fired.

It goes on to allege that Phil Corwin may begin publicly excoriating Collins and his minions should Jane lose on Tuesday.

The rift in the Erie County Republican Party is deepening, and while they’re putting on a very thin front of unity for now, it looks like Collins has become the Republicans’ Steve Pigeon – another tinpot Machiavelli looking to grow and consolidate power at the expense of the old guard, embodied by people like Tom Reynolds.

First Siena, Now PPP

Another poll was released last night showing Kathy Hochul with 42%, Jane Corwin with 36%, and Jack Davis with 13%.  The results of this poll very closely mirror the Siena poll released on Saturday.  Hochul is up 7%, Corwin is up 5%, and Davis is down a whopping 11%.  Also similarly to the Siena poll, Hochul’s favorability is +14 while Corwin’s is -18, down 15 points in just two weeks. Whereas Davis’ favorability/unfavorability was even at 43/43 two weeks ago, he’s now -39!

Corwin’s camp knew it would have to deal with a Tea Party line Jack Davis in this race, and assumed that if they hammered away at him for being weak Tea, those voters would break for Corwin.  But because Corwin has run a campaign that is only competent at incompetence, and because she has adopted extreme and radical positions not followed by voters in the district, those people have instead gone to Hochul in droves.  Hochul is drawing more Republican support than Corwin is drawing Democrats, and independents are relatively evenly split, with the advantage going to Hochul by +2.

PPP says that voters it surveyed think the Republican majority in Congress is doing a worse job than its predecessor.  It also found that, while NY-26 doesn’t like Obama, it dislikes John Boehner more. That’s a huge Corwin miscalculation, bringing him to town to campaign with her. Every time someone links Hochul with Pelosi, that isn’t as bad as it would be to link Corwin with Boehner.  Finally, Democrats in the district are more enthusiastic about voting for Hochul  than Republicans are about Corwin.

Probably because Hochul hasn’t been running a relentlessly negative, extreme campaign of dirty tricks. Davis would probably be doing a bit better if he had better advice and wasn’t being advised by sycophants and guys who never won a race.  The PPP results show huge dissatisfaction with Washington. Davis is making little headway on what should be – but isn’t – his big issue.

Hochul’s in the lead, but there’s no guarantee she’ll win. It all comes down to turnout and whose get out the vote effort is better.

 

27 Responses to “The Republican Rift, the PPP Poll #NY26”

  1. Mr. F.N. Magoo May 23, 2011 at 7:45 am #

    I know what “POS” means on the Internet. “Chris Collin’s COS Chris Grant”….does “COS” mean ‘chunk of”?

  2. Still Republican? May 23, 2011 at 8:19 am #

    Pretty much on the nose. Both the story and Mr. Magoo 🙂

  3. RaChaCha May 23, 2011 at 8:25 am #

    ^ Works in this context.

  4. This Guy May 23, 2011 at 8:25 am #

    The parallels between Steve Pigeon and Nick “Boy Blunder” Langworthy are interesting. To begin with, they carry themselves the same way from the duck like waddle to a slightly too high pant line (not Brian Higgins high though ) to the hunched shoulders. But Pigeon was installed was a County Executive who thought he was too weak to achieve anything on his own, that County Executive then lost re-election the next year. The relentless negativity and dirty tricks were also a hallmark of the Pigeon era. Not to mention the losing races you should easily win.

  5. RaChaCha May 23, 2011 at 8:27 am #

    ^ Oops — my response was meant to be to Mr. Magoo only.

  6. Bbill May 23, 2011 at 8:31 am #

    Curious as to what Ward makes of these new poll numbers.

  7. mike May 23, 2011 at 8:52 am #

    Is Corwin still in the NYS Assembly?

  8. Buffalo Rude May 23, 2011 at 9:18 am #

    Even if Corwin manages to squeak a win out of what should have been a cake-walk, I think this sets up the County Exec. race nicely for Poloncarz.

    Also http://maelstrominwny.blogspot.com/? Disgruntled Republican? He/she seems to talk like an insider of some sort.

  9. Mike In WNY May 23, 2011 at 10:06 am #

    Harold Camping had the time and date wrong. The Rapture will occur tomorrow at 9 pm when the polls close if Hochul wins.

  10. Mr. F.N. Magoo May 23, 2011 at 10:07 am #

    Not sure if its in the print edition or even if it will affect turnout on a stormy special election but The Daily News in Batavia has a story about a poll that highlights Medicare yet again.
    http://thedailynewsonline.com/news/article_15f300d5-edfc-5efb-a771-a0a8228e8f3c.html
    Corwin’s number aren’t nearly what they should be out here so I can only hope.

  11. Mr. F.N. Magoo May 23, 2011 at 10:09 am #

    @Mike: It might be more accurate to quote REM: Its the end of the world as YOU know it.

  12. Rob May 23, 2011 at 12:16 pm #

    Corwin is now telling nursing home residents that the Ryan plan for Medicare isn’t a voucher plan and that she would never support vouchers.

  13. Ward May 23, 2011 at 7:40 pm #

    Glad you askked, Bbbbbbbilll.
    Public Policy Polling (disguised as “PPP” by Alan) traditionally misses on the low side vis a vis Republicans. I looked up their record. They had John Raese down by six points in the 2010 WV US Senate race, and he won by ten. They had John McCain (Alan’s former main squeeze) up by 13 points late in the race, and he won by 24.
    So, if you take their union-household biased numbers and add 13 to the Republican candidate, they’ll be just about right.
    Meanwhile, their numbers serve nicely to energise the Repub vote on the day.

    BTW, BBBBbbilll–which Dem district are you rooting to go away in the next re-districting: Slaughter? Hochul? Higgins? Even if your girl wins tomorrow, you lose a seat next year.

  14. Jackson Smiles May 23, 2011 at 9:23 pm #

    Of course Chris Grant is tied up in this. He’ll do whatever he can to justify his existance in politics. He’s nothing more than an evil Republican pawn in a money suit.

  15. Ray May 23, 2011 at 9:55 pm #

    “Even if your girl wins tomorrow, you lose a seat next year.”

    Or not. Here’s how I see that play out:

    If Annoi Jane somehow reclaims the redness of her electorate, she’ll likely be put into a “fair fight” race against Louise Slaughter, who will take her out the same way she’s taken out every other well-funded Republican over the past 20 years.

    On the other hand, if Kathy wins, I suspect Weezie will suddenly find a desire to retire, Shelly jiggering the three remaining districts so that Shirtless is the odd man (and I do mean odd) out.

  16. Mr. F.N. Magoo May 23, 2011 at 10:12 pm #

    @Ward:”Public Policy Polling (disguised as “PPP” by Alan) traditionally misses on the low side vis a vis Republicans. ” Ahhhh, not so much. I’ll take Nate Silver’s analysis over yours.
    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/23/special-election-warrants-caution-for-forecasters-and-for-republicans/

  17. Ward May 23, 2011 at 10:47 pm #

    Magoo–you mean this analysis: “A relatively wide range of outcomes are possible, from a double-digit win for Ms. Hochul to a win for Ms. Corwin by several points”?

    Boy, that’s what I call taking a bold stand.

  18. Ward May 23, 2011 at 10:55 pm #

    And here’s how “PPP” gets it done for their side:
    In Wisconsin they recently declared that Gov. Scott Walker would lose in a rematch of the last election. How? Why, by making sure their sample consisted of 32% union households. This in a State where the workforce is 14.2% union. “PPP” are shills for the SEIU and the Democrat Party, which is why they are well received and trusted here.

  19. This Guy May 23, 2011 at 11:41 pm #

    Very interesting Ward, I bet John Raese is especially interested in your analysis too considering he is not in the US Senate and lost by 11 points. There must have been a huge mistake, I will let him know he really won by 10 points.

  20. Eric Saldanha May 24, 2011 at 12:15 am #

    Ward – you are the Washington Generals of electoral prognostication.

    Nate Silver is quite correct in not making a definite statement that Hochul will win tomorrow because, as he says, volatility in the electorate, reflected in the pre-election polling, could benefit Corwin. However, I agree with his opinion that the enthusiasm gap from the 2010 midterms has closed and Corwin has to hope for a large swath of disgruntled GOP voters (who have either cast their lot with Davis or are sitting out completely) to come to her rescue. Quite a disappointment for a GOP candidate in a R+6 district who could have strolled to this open seat in Congress.

    I hope that this special election does turn out to be a referendum on the Ryan budget/demolition of Medicare and serves as a harbinger for next year’s elections, when the electorate finally realizes that the lies they were fed by Republicans in 2010 have come to roost as legislative truth…enacted by those same Republicans.

  21. Mr. F.N. Magoo May 24, 2011 at 6:41 am #

    @Ward: “Very interesting Ward, I bet John Raese is especially interested in your analysis too considering he is not in the US Senate and lost by 11 points. There must have been a huge mistake, I will let him know he really won by 10 points.” You make my choice of Nate Silver’s analysis over yours look even better.

  22. Rob May 24, 2011 at 7:06 am #

    Nate Silver analyzed pollsters gubernatorial and Senate races last year and found PPP to have a slight (R+ 0.3) bias.

    And as This Guy pointed out, John Raese LOST the WV Senate race by 10 points, So if PPP had him down by only 6 they again had a Republican bias. That’s even funnier than your “Siena’s new poll” gaffe.

  23. Rob May 24, 2011 at 7:06 am #

    * pollsters in gubernatorial and Senate races

  24. Rob May 24, 2011 at 7:21 am #

    Shorter Ward: “PPP’s Dem bias is shown by the fact that they McCain down by 8 points in the 2010 Presidential election while as we all know McCain was elected 44th President by 10 points.”

  25. Bbill May 24, 2011 at 8:08 am #

    Ward, thanks for the response. Glad you’re not with the good guys.

  26. Rob May 25, 2011 at 1:29 pm #

    And once again, the PPP poll was correct, except it understated the Dem winning margin. Tell me again how PPP polls “traditionally miss on the low side vis a vis Republicans”.

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. Balloon Juice » Another Poll Shows Hochul Ahead - May 23, 2011

    […] have given Corwin a 52-34 unfavorable-favorable rating (almost the mirror opposite of Hochul). As Buffalopundit put it, “Corwin has run a campaign that is only competent at […]

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